62 Days of Snow Predicted This Winter
By Stephen Smoot
One of the regular autumnal rituals in the mountains is observing woolly bears, or worms, to discern the likelihood of a rough or mild winter.
It is unlikely that American Indians used these observations, but the tradition dates back to the original frontier settlers.
Pendleton County, like so many other communities in West Virginia, has its own expert who applies countless time of study and application of a “secret formula” to provide a prediction.
Robin Kile has shared her prediction for the upcoming winter.
The Woolly Bears Have Returned! Woolly Bear Winter Weather Forecast for 2025-26
“The woolly bears have been predicting winter snows in Pendleton County since 2013-14, except for last
winter when none of the caterpillars could be found to make a forecast,” Kile reports. “This fall, however, the little fuzzy ones returned and once again have made their prediction. Twenty-five woolies were captured by Jack Hedrick and delivered to Kiser Gap where the black and brown bands on each caterpillar were counted. The caterpillars were then released. This information was plugged into the “secret formula” and according to that data, Pendleton County should have 62 days of snow falling from the sky this winter (Nov. 1 – March 31). Based on 11 years of woolly bear information, 62 is the average number of snow days for this area. Whether a snow lover or hater this should bring one joy, as it also means there will be 89 days of no snow!”
A North Carolina State University publication several years ago explored the use of woolly worms as prediction devices. They wished to determine if the traditional Appalachian lore regarding them held up to academic inquiry.
Traditionally, black stripes are said to predict more cold and snow. Brown stripes indicate milder conditions. The Old Farmer’s Almanac suggests that “if their rusty band is wide, it will be a mild winter.” In fact, it issued a prediction that the Northeast will have a mild winter based on observations.
When the woolly worm sports narrow bands, that indicates a harsh winter. Also, as the Farmer’s Almanac states, “the more black there is, the more severe the winter,” according to tradition. Its usual 13 bands of color are said to represent the 13 weeks of traditional winter, according to Appalachian History.net
In 1948, Dr. C. H. Curran of the American Museum of Natural History in New York City decided to test the tradition of woolly worms and weather. The long-term study also gave him a professional excuse to go on many excursions deep into the New York State countryside during leaf changing season.
He and the friends and colleagues who accompanied him styled themselves the “Original Society of the Friends of the Woolly Bear.”
Whether one calls it the woolly worm or bear, this species has one characteristic that sets it apart. It is one of the few North American animals to practice “freeze tolerance.” It pumps itself full of cryoprotectants when the cold season approaches. This enables it to not just hibernate, but to freeze itself in its larval stage throughout the winter. It then thaws in the spring to form a pupa and transform further.
After eight years of study, Dr. Curran established that he needed a much larger sample size over a longer term to truly establish a connection. He did say that his work did not rule out the possibility that the tradition was, in fact true.
Exactly 50 years ago, Appalachian State University’s students established a Center for Woolly Worm Study, originally to compare new specimens with those collected during 10 years
Lack of resolution only makes this unusual little insect that much more interesting to scientists and natural observers alike.
