By Stephen Smoot
One of the strangest aspects of running a weekly paper lies in reporting news, in a sense, before it happens. As last week closed, the region enjoyed blue skies and temperatures both seasonal and pleasant for January.
As the storm played out, it reminded officials and residents alike that “Mann Tracht, Un Gott Lacht,” an old Yiddish proverb that translates to “Man plans and God laughs.”
As residents raced to get squared away, buying provisions, preparing for a loss of electric power, and settling in for a long stay at home, a massive storm lurched from the southwest to the northeast, drawing strength as it pushed from Texas to across the Mississippi River. National Weather Service maps by the end of the week fixed the target squarely on the Mountain State.
The Pendleton County Office of Emergency Management issued a statement sharing that “the weather models keep changing” but that the region has “a good chance of our receiving some ice mix with this storm.”
Ominously, it went on to state that “with the temps, it won’t be melting soon.”
Furthermore, the statement explained that warmer, moister air will push farther north. This will result in a heavier and more dangerous wet snow than the drier “powder” originally forecast. Wetter snow could result in more tree damage, which can also create power outages.
The OEM will operate two warming shelters if needed with the community building in Franklin stated as the first option.
Additionally, West Virginia Governor Patrick Morrisey issued a State of Preparedness. This “allows the West Virginia Emergency Management Division to prepare staff and resources to respond in the event of an emergency.”
At about midday on Friday, the Pendleton County OEM shared that two winter storm warnings had come from the National Weather Service. The first covered the Allegheny Front and Mountain regions from western Pendleton northward to Mineral and Allegheny counties and south into Highland, Virginia.
It predicted snow and sleet accumulations of 12 to 18 inches. One tenth of an inch of ice was forecast “mostly west of the Allegheny Front and south of US 33.” The warning covered a range of time between 7 p.m. Saturday and 10 a.m. Monday. It warned that heavy snow would fall at a rate of one to two inches per hour on Saturday night and Sunday morning with visibility potentially at a quarter mile or less. On Sunday, precipitation is expected to shift to ice for a time, then back to snow.
“A prolonged period of sub-zero wind chills is likely beginning Friday evening and lasting through the middle of next week,” it added.
Weather in eastern Pendleton and Grant counties enjoyed only slightly less intense predictions, with accumulations potentially ranging from 10 to 16 inches and ice accumulating as well roughly south of US 33. It expects that the storm will continue between 7 p.m. Saturday to 1 a.m. Monday morning.
“Travel could be very difficult to impossible,” the warning read.
Meteorology is certainly a science, but not an exact one.
This storm saw a convergence of the jet stream, a polar vortex, and moist air from the south. Add in the destabilizing effects of the almost unique Appalachian ridge and valley physical geography and weather can get difficult to predict.
Between frigid air masses traveling above the mountains of West Virginia nestled a layer of warm air. Snow generated in the highest of clouds, melted in the warm layer, then proceeded to refreeze and fall as frozen raindrops that accumulate on the ground much more densely than most snowfalls.
As the National Weather Service describes, this differs from freezing rain. In freezing rain, the “supercooled” liquid water droplets freeze on contact with cold surfaces, including power lines, tree limbs, and more, causing much more significant potential problems.
After the State of Preparedness issued by Morrisey, emergency management officials still expected much more snow than sleet. In any event, they suggested staying off the roadways. At 6 a.m. Sunday morning, the Pendleton County Office of Emergency Management and 911 Facebook page alerted the area “for the most part, sleet has taken over. Roads are hazardous. We suggest staying home.”
Travel hazards as the day continued came more from the large accumulations of sleet that built up on steep cliffs and hillsides over top of both secondary roads and main highways. At 10:20 a.m., the Pendleton OEM reported that West Virginia Department of Highways crews “Advise us that the build-up of sleet on steep slopes is leading to mini-avalanches into primary and secondary highways.”
The page shared photographs all day from US 33 on Allegheny Mountain and the North Fork Valley, Smoke Hole Road, Snowy Mountain Road, and other heavily used roadways in the county.
“Travel is not recommended. You can’t predict when one of these things may tangle with your vehicle.” Conditions continued into Monday with US 33 and 220 restricted to a single lane. Snow plows cannot clear sleet deposits of 10 or more feet in height, so the DOH called in a snow blower to clear the way. “The snow blower does not travel fast, so give them time.”
As of Monday morning, Whites Run Road, Nelson Gap Road, Smoke Hole Road, Harper Gap Road, and the upper section of Pike Gap Road remain closed to traffic.
Pendleton County Schools, Pendleton County courthouse and other local businesses closed their doors for the day. PCS used a non traditional school day as part of their strategy to try and avoid extending days into June.
News also came from across Shenandoah Mountain on the Rocktown Now Facebook page that a number of chicken houses and greenhouses in Rockingham County, Virginia, had collapsed under the weight of the combined sleet and snow.
The National Weather Service reported as of Monday morning that temperatures will remain bitterly cold at least through the weekend. Franklin was forecasted to have a low of two degrees Wednesday night and -3 tonight with highs in the upper teens during the day. Ranges will be similar for the Sugar Grove and Brandywine areas.
In the higher elevations near Allegheny Mountain, expect -7 tonight with highs in the upper single digits during the daytime at week’s end.
